Multi-Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Value in Arid Areas Based on PLUS Model: A Case Study of Jiuquan City, China

The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile area natural ecology. With population growth and continuous expansion urban scale, the ecosystem in facing greater pressure. Scientific assessment prediction value services areas are necessary great significance for sustainable development regional ecological environments. In this paper, a parametric optimal geographic model used to analyze driving factors ESV spatial dispersion Jiuquan City as example. PLUS also simulate temporal evolution 2035 under scenarios development, water constraints conservation, based on historical change pattern land use service (ESV). results showed that from 1980 2020, plowland, construction significant increasing trend, while other types decreasing trend. has increased CNY 139.394 billion 142.642 billion. plowland was main reason increase ESV. Elevation, temperature, precipitation differentiation City. interaction human enhances explanatory power each factor 2035, four upward protection scenario highest, which best mode realize future. This study can provide scientific basis decision-making formulate strategy.